Trump believes sending the National Guard into majority-Black cities will benefit him politically. Black Insights’ research suggests it will cost him—and Democrats have a critical opportunity to mobilize voters around this issue.
The Trump administration has deployed the National Guard in Chicago and Memphis, after doing so in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., with threats of mobilizing troops in cities nationwide. Like guard deployments throughout troubling periods in U.S. history, Trump is sending troops to metropolitan areas with large Black populations, citing crime control despite violent crime being down in most major cities.
In our NY Daily News op-ed, “National Guard Use Upsets Black Voters,” we explore how this deployment strategy threatens Black communities while simultaneously creating a powerful catalyst for voter mobilization heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.
The data is clear: Black voters overwhelmingly reject these deployments, and this rejection has the potential to help the Democratic Party. Democrats must seize this moment to rebuild relationships with Black voters—particularly low-propensity voters—if they hope to reclaim the House and Senate in 2026, and recover the White House in 2028.
A deeper dive into our op-ed reveals key findings that should shape Democratic strategy:
Black voters see deployments as political, not about public safety
- 84% of Black Americans oppose the deployments on principle, compared to 66% of Latinos and 49% of whites.
- Most Americans believe troop deployments are more about politics than fighting crime.
- Historical precedent explains this skepticism: from the 1917 East St. Louis Race Riots where troops joined violent mobs, to 1957 Little Rock where troops blocked school desegregation, to the 1960s urban unrest responses that failed to address root causes.
Military threat perception drives voter turnout
- 71% of Black people would feel threatened if Trump deployed troops on American soil.
- Black voters who perceive Trump’s military deployments as a threat are significantly more likely to vote in statewide elections.
- For low-propensity voters specifically, perceived military threat increases the probability of turnout by 8% after accounting for other factors.
Low-propensity Black voters are the key to Democratic success
- After Black turnout declined in 2024, Democrats need to mobilize voters who don’t participate regularly.
- Our research shows mobilization of low-propensity Black voters may have shifted the 2024 election in favor of Kamala Harris.
- Trump’s deployments are likely to be extended elsewhere, creating ongoing opportunities for mobilization.
Democrats must move beyond complaints to action
- Trump’s actions aren’t just political theater—they’re a direct assault on Black communities.
- Democrats need to do more than complain about Trump’s motives; they must confront the threat directly.
- A winning strategy puts Black voters and their concerns at the center of the fight for 2026 and 2028.
The lesson is clear: Trump is handing Democrats an opportunity through these deployments. The question is whether they’ll take advantage of it. With the untapped potential among low-propensity Black voters, their political survival may well depend on it.